داود صفی خانی
اقتصاد ایران سال‌ها درگیر تورمی مزمن و دامنگیر شده است، تورمی که سال به سال بر شدت آن افزوده می‌شود و خود سرآغاز مشکلات متعددی در نظام اقتصادی می‌شود.
در گیر و دار تورم مزمن، مشکل دیگری که در ساختار اقتصادی ظاهر می‌شود، فراگیر شدن نوعی از رکود است که دامنگیر بسیاری از کسب و کارها می‌شود.
نمونه‌ای از آثار این رکود به بازار کالاهای حوزه ICT باز می‌گردد. در این رابطه رییس اتحادیه فناوران تهران می‌گوید: در یک سال گذشته قدرت خرید اکثر مردم گاهی روزانه کاهش می‌یافت؛ روندی که پیش‌بینی می‌شود در سال جاری تشدید شود. چون از نگاه فعالان اقتصادی چشم‌اندازی برای بهبود وضع اقتصادی وجود ندارد. در این بین خرید برخی از کالاها از آن دسته واجباتی هستند که نمی‌توان قید آنها را به خاطر جیب خالی زد. گاهی به علت شرایط کاری یا تحصیلی مجبور به خرید کالاهایی هستند که هیچ تناسبی با دخل آنها ندارند. خرید «لپ تاپ» نیز یکی از همین موارد است.
در همین حال سنگ‌اندازی‌های اخیر منجر به دلسردی واردکنندگان شده و آنها را به سمت خروج سرمایه از کشور سوق می‌دهد. این در حالی است که کاهش عرضه محصولات آی‌تی می‌تواند منجر به افزایش قاچاق کالا و خروج ارز از کشور شود.
به نظر می‌رسد این سرآغازی برای جریان رکود در کسب و کارها است که نشانه‌هایی از آن در حوزه‌های مختلفی هم نمایان خواهد شد. جریان رکود در کسب و کارها که تورم آن را بر اقتصاد تحمیل خواهد کرد.
از طرفی جریان رکود در اقتصاد به شکل مرسوم با نگاهی منفی‌گرایانه تحلیل شده است و فراگیر شدن آن در اقتصاد در نهایت به از بین رفتن بسیاری از کسب و کارها منجر می‌شود.
البته که این دیدگاه صحیح به نظر می‌رسد اما از طرفی از منظری دیگر «رکود» نکات مثبتی هم دارد. برای درک بهتر آن داستان دهه 30 میلادی را باید مرور کرد.
در اوایل دهه ۳۰ میلادی، «کاپیتالیسم» به تشنج افتاد. اسم این تشنج را «رکود بزرگ» (Great Depression) گذاشتند. ماجرای رکود بزرگ از اواسط سال ۱۹۲۸ شروع می‌شود و با فروپاشی بازار سهام آمریکا در سال ۱۹۲۹ شدت می‌گیرد. در نتیجه شوک فروپاشی بازار سهام، مردم را ترغیب به بیرون کشیدن سپرده‌‌هایشان از بانک‌ها و نگهداری پول نقد می‌کند. نگهداری پول نقد نیز به کاهش تقاضا برای کالا و خدمات کسب‌وکارها می‌انجامد. تقاضای کمتر به معنای درآمد کمتر برای کسب‌وکارهاست و درآمد کمتر برای کسب‌وکارها به معنای فشار به بانک‌هایی است که به این کسب‌وکارها وام دادند. در نتیجه بانک‌ها به طور زنجیره‌وار ورشکست شده و جریان وام و اعتباردهی به کسب‌وکارها مختل می‌شود.
نکته جالبی که درباره رکود بزرگ وجود دارد نگاه «اقتصاددانان» و «سیاستگذاران اقتصادی» به پدیده رکود اقتصادی است. در آن زمان دیدگاه رایج این بود که ورشکستگی بنگاه‌های اقتصادی یک پدیده طبیعی است.
به عبارت دیگر رکود اقتصادی به معنای تنبیه کسب‌وکارهایی است که در تخمین تقاضای آتی مشتریان برای کالای تولیدی در سرمایه‌گذاری‌هایشان اشتباه کردند.
در این بین «جوزف شومپتر»، اقتصاددان معروف نوآوری، در آن زمان گفته بود که رکود اقتصادی را نباید به چشم «معضل» نگاه کنیم و دنبال مهار آن باشیم، چرا که رکود نوعی فرآیند تطبیق افراد و کسب‌وکارها با واقعیت‌هاست و اگر رکود را به تعویق بیاندازیم، بذر بحران بزرگتری در آینده کاشته می‌شود.
اقتصاددان معروف دیگری که نظر مشابهی در اوایل رکود بزرگ داشت، فردریش فون‌هایک بود که در کتاب «تولید و قیمت‌ها» (۱۹۳۱) نوشت: «تنها راه پایداری که تمام منابع موجود [اقتصاد] را مشغول به کار کنیم، این است که همه‌چیز را به زمان بسپاریم تا ساختار تولید را به آرامی [با واقعیت‌های جدید] انطباق بدهد.*
اما نکته عجیب‌تر در جریان رکودی، نگاه فرانسوی‌ها به داستان رکود بزرگ بود. در دهه 20 میلادی که فرانسه درگیر تورم شدیدی بود سیاست‌گذار در نهایت به این دیدگاه رسید که باید اجازه بدیم کسب‌و‌کارهای بدهکاری که ریسک‌های زیادی کردن ورشکست شده و از چرخه اقتصاد حذف بشوند و این را در نهایت به نفع تخصیص بهینه منابع اقتصادشان می‌دانستند.
از این جهت با توجه به شرایطی که در اقتصاد کشور حاکم شده است، رکود و حذف بسیاری از کسب و کارها خصوصا در حوزه فناوری قابل پیش‌بینی است. اساسا همانطور که ذکر شد، ورشکستگی و حذف بخشی از کسب و کارها در اقتصادها گریز ناپذیر است و در اقتصاد لرزان و به شدت متغییر کشور ما هم با توجه به پیش‌بینی ناپذیر بودن آینده و مجموعه ریسک‌های دیگر، دشوارتر.
و در نهایت همانطور که ذکر شد از این منظر فراگیر شدن رکود و حذف بخشی از کسب و کارها در یک سیستم اقتصادی فعال و پویا به نوعی دارای مزیت است چرا که منابع را در راستای بخش‌های فعال‌تر و پربازده‌تر بهینه می‌کند. اگرچه در اقتصاد ناپایدار کشور ما پیش‌بینی مفید و زیان بار بودن آن بسیار دشوار است و برای فعالان اقتصادی بسی دشوارتر!
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