عباس پورخصالیان
یکی از مسائل مهمیکه در سال 1402 در جامعۀ اصلاعات ایران مطرح شد ولی از نظر اغلب کارشناسان مربوط (بجز کارشناسان مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس) مغفول ماند، ضرورت ارزیابی Business model یا مدل کسب و کاری پلتفرمهای فعال در کشور است.
منظور از مدل کسب و کاری، شیوۀ درآمدزایی مالی- اقتصادی یک پلتفرم است و منظورم از «مسأله»، ایرادی است که سخنگوی سازمان تعزیرات حکومتی [خبرگزاری مهر-16/10/1402] در مورد گزینه «عجله دارم» در پلتفرمهای تاکسییابی اینترنتی-تلفنی مطرح کرده است. وی خطاب به مسؤولان پلتفرمهای مذکور گفت:
– گزینه «عجله دارم» مصداق گرانفروشی است و ذیل آن، هیچ خدمات اضافهای به کاربران داده نمیشود؛ و چنانچه آژانسهای تاکسییابی اینترنتی این گزینه را از پلتفرم خود حذف نکنند مطابق مصوبه شورای هماهنگی، چنانچه تخلف گرانفروشی احراز شود، سازمان تعزیرات حکومتی میتواند حکم به پلمپ دهد.
– البته چند روز قبل رییس سازمان تعزیرات نیز درباره رسیدگی به موضوع گزینه «عجله دارم» تاکسیهای اینترنتی گفت: این گزینه از موضوعاتی بود که هیچ دستگاهی به آن ورود نداشته و ما راسا ورود کردیم و قطعا از مصادیق گرانفروشی است. قبلأ تذکرات لازم داده شده و پرونده تشکیل شده و در حال تحقیقات مقدماتی است. اتمام حجت میکنم که شرکتهای تاکسیهای اینترنتی خودشان این گزینه را جمع کنند زیرا اجحاف در حق مردم است و برخی از شرکتها از دیروز که پیگیر بودیم قول دادند که آن را حذف کنند.
به نظرم، تذکر فوق و طرح مسألۀ مذکور – اگر از سوی کارشناسان و مدیران عموم کسب و کارهای پلتفرمی، جدی گرفته و با تأمل پاسخدهی شود، موجب اعتلای خدمات پلتفرمها و افزایش درآمد آنها خواهد شد زیرا که میتواند به بازمهندسی پلتفرمهای تاکسییابی و بهینهسازی بهرهوری و تابسازی بهتر مدل کسب و کاری آنها منجر شود!
از این بابت باید قدردانِ تذکر جدیِ مسوولان سازمان تعزیرات حکومتی به مدیران و کارشناسان پلتفرمهای تاکسییابی (مثل اسنپ، تپسی و ماکسیم) بود ولی همچنین باید واکنش رئیس مرکز بهبود محیط کسبوکار وزارت اقتصاد به خبر مذکور را درست فهمید: وی در مقابل تذکر سخنگوی سازمان تعزیرات حکومتی، گفته بود:
- گزینه «عجله دارم»، به هیچ وجه تخلف نیست؛ اما نگران کردن سرمایهگذاران قطعاً تخلف از سیاست اعلامیدولت است. سیاست دولت، ایجاد ثبات و امنیت سرمایهگذاری است و با هر تخلفی از آن محکم برخورد میکنیم».
قبول! نگران کردن سرمایهگذاران شاید تخلف از سیاست اعلامیدولت و لذا مردود باشد! اما این نگرانی رئیس مرکز بهبود محیط کسب و کار در وزارت اقتصاد، به تذکر سخنگوی سازمان تعزیرات حکومتی در مورد ایراد گزینه «عجله دارم» ربط ندارد!
زیرا که موضوع مورد اشارۀ مدیران سازمان تعزیرات حکومتی، در تحلیل نهایی، مربوط به یا مدل کسب و کاریِ شرکتهایی است پس از سرمایهگذاری و راهاندازی پلتفرم، باید مطابق با عقل کارشناسی و استانداردهای جامعۀ هدف فعالیت کنند. رئیس محترم مرکز بهبود محیط کسبوکار وزارت اقتصاد به علاوۀ کارشناسان و مدیران پلتفرمهای تاکسییابی مربوط باید در نظر بگیرند که مسائل پیرامون Business model به طور کلی و گزینه «عجله دارم» بالاخص، مبحاثی عمیقاً کارشناسی در طراحی جزئیات سیستمهای ایجاد شده پس از سرمایهگذاری هستند و طرح و رفع یک ایراد، در نهایت به اعتلا و ارتقاء بهرهوری این سیستمها میانجامد و لذا به نفع سرمایهگذارن است.
این که چرا در اوبر و رقبای جهانی آن، گزینه «عجله دارم» وجود ندارد ولی در پلتفرمهای مشابه آنها در ایران وجود دارد، یک پرسش کارشناسی است که باید به آن، پاسخی درست داد:
- برابر با آمار، در ساعات شلوغی در پرجمعیتترین شهرهای جهان به هر رانندۀ تاکسی اینترنتیِ Lyft، روزانه به طور میانگین 20 مسافر و به هر رانندۀ اوبر: 24 مسافر میرسد!
(رجوع شود به مراجع زیر: https://www.statista.com/statistics/910704/market-share-of-rideshare-companies-united-states/
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/
- https://www.earnestanalytics.com/behind-the-ridesharing-wheel
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/910704/market-share-of-rideshare-companies-united-states/)
اما آیا رئیس محترم مرکز بهبود محیط کسبوکار وزارت اقتصاد میداند که در شهرهای تحت پوشش تاکسییابی اینترنتی ایران، این شاخص چقدر بزرگ است؟ آیا میتواند تخمین بزند و اعلام کند که میانگین این شاخص در ایران چقدر است؟ و در ساعت شلوغی ترافیک، به هر رانندۀ تاکسی اینترنتی چه تعداد مسافر متقاضی میرسد؟ – نه آن رئیس محترم میداند و نه من کارشناس میدانم! پس قبول میکنید که نداشتن اعداد و ارقامی در مورد این شاخص، یکی از پارامترهای مهم ولی مجهولِ ایجاد گزینۀ «عجله دارم» است.
بدون شک، میزان شاخص مذکور در ایران به قدری غیرمعقول متفاوت از میانگین سایر کشورها است که آژانسهای تاکسییابی ما، ناشیانه آمدهاند گزینۀ «عجله دارم» را راهاندازی کردهاند؛ بدون آن که به راه حلی برای متعادلسازی عرضه و تقاضا بیاندیشند.
- گزینه «عجله دارم» تنها به این دلیل مردود نیست که به متعادلسازی عرضه و تقاضا نمیپردازد و یکراست دست در جیب درصد بالایی از عموم متقاضان تاکسی اینترنتی میکند بدون آن که عملاً خدمتی عرضه کند، بلکه به این دلیل نیز مردود است که بجای رفع ناترازی عرضه و تقاضا در بازار تاکسییابی اینترنتی، به این ناترازی دامن میزند! زیرا که در جمعیت رانندگان عضو پلتفرمهای تاکسییابی به مرور زمان نوعی سوءِرفتار را تحریک و تشویق میکند: دیر پاسخ دادن به تقاضای وارده به امید ریسک بالاتر و شانس سود بیشتر!
زیرا که گزینۀ اعمال شده توسط مسافر و متقاضی تاکسی اینترنتی (درخواست عادی یا درخواست اولویتدار) در نرمافزار تعدادی از پلتفرمها طوری پردازش میشود که از نظر راننده تاکسی اینترنتی مخفی میماند؛ فلذا رانندۀ پَسزَننده یا پذیرای درخواست متقاضی، اصلاً پیش-آگاهی از نوع درخواست مسافر و از قبل، امکان تصمیم گیری آگاهانه برای رد یا قبول تقاضا را ندارد.
- عمومیت یافتن سوءِرفتارِ مبتنی بر «دیر پاسخ دادن به تقاضای وارده به امید سود بیشتر» به مرور زمان، از بهرهوری زیرساختهای جادهای و سامانههای تاکسییابی اینترنتی میکاهد زیرا که یکی از شاخصهای مهندسی و مدیریت عملکرد پلتفرمهای تاکسییابی، افزایش «نسبت “مسافران متصل شده به یک سایت” به “کل مسافران مراجعهکننده به آن سایت» در ساعت شلوغی است و گزینۀ «عجله دارم» (به علاوه دسته بندی رانندگان به دو دستۀ رانندگان دارای خودرو کلاس پائین و بالا) در اثر عمومیت یافتن سوءِرفتارِ مبتنی بر «دیر پاسخ دادن به تقاضای وارده به امید سود بیشتر» به مرور زمان، نسبت مذکور را همواره کم و کمتر میکند، زیرا نتیجۀ دستهبندی رانندگان به 2 دستۀ رانندگان دارای خودرو کلاس پایین و بالا این است که از بهرهوری پلتفرم میکاهد.
- کمینهسازی میانگین طول زمانِ متصل ماندن مراجعهکننده به سایت پلتفرم تاکسییابی، شاخصی دیگر برای بهینهسازی عملکرد پلتفرم است. بدون رفع ناترازی عرضه و تقاضا به نفع بیشینهسازی عرضه، این شاخص نیز به طرز نامطلوبی بزرگ و بزرگتر میشود و خطر احتناق شبکه (Network congestion) را به شدت بالا میبرد.
- کار مطلوبی که یک سرور پلتفرم تاکسییابی اینترنتی میتواند برای ارتقاء بهرهوری و اثر بخشی سیستم بکند، محاسبه پیکاپهای سریع و مسافتهای کوتاه و اولویت دادن به این دسته از تقاضاها نسبت به دسته پیکاپهای مشکل و مسیرهای طولانی است.
من نمیدانم آیا پدیدآورندگان و توسعهدهندگان نرمافزارهای آژانسهای تاکسیرانی ما، الگوریتمهای مربوط به این محاسبه را در برنامههای خود گنجانیدهاند یا خیر! فرض کنید که با وجود فعال کردن گزینه عجله دارم، رانندهای که هنوز سفر قبلی خود را به پایان نرسانده میتواند آن سفر «متقاضی عجله دار» را قبول کند ولی مسافر بینوا باید منتظر بماند تا سفر راننده تمام شود و بعد از آن خود را به مبدأ مسافری که عجله دارد برساند.
پس، از هر منظری که به گزینۀ «عجله دارم» نگاه کنید، مشاهده میشود که گزینه «عجله دارم» در تاکسیهای اینترنتی هم مصداق گرانفروشی است (بخصوص از منظر سخنگوی سازمان تعزیرات حکومتی) و هم مصداق طراحی ناشیانۀ یک مدل کسب و کاری مخرب!
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