سمیه مهدوی پیام
قانون مور (Moore) یک مفهوم آشناست که ادعا می‌کند تعداد ترانزیستورهای یک تراشه سیلیکونی، هر دو سال، دو برابر می‌شود و عملکرد محاسباتی را افزایش می‌دهد.
از زمانی که این قانون در 50 سال پیش مطرح شد، ثابت شده پیش‌بینی آن، درست بوده است.
اکنون قانون نیلسن (Nielsen)، یک رویکرد مشابه برای سرعت شبکه دارد و ادعا می‌کند پهنای باند بالا، هر سال 50 درصد رشد می‌کند.
این امر، به معنای رشد 57 برابری ظرفیت در طول یک دهه است.
از زمانی که یاکوب نیلسن قانون خود را در سال 1998 تدوین کرد، درستی آن نیز ثابت شده است.
با این حال، ممکن است نقطه‌ای وجود داشته باشد که در آن قانون نیلسن صدق نکند و ظرفیت، دیگر افزایش نیابد.
با این همه، آیا فناوری می‌تواند با پیشرفت‌های پیشنهادشده توسط قانون نیلسن همگام شود؟ آیا دسترسی بی‌سیم ثابت (FWA: Fixed Wireless Access) مبتنی بر 5G، به پاسخگویی به تقاضای رو به رشد سریع برای پهنای باند کمک می‌کند؟
دسترسی بی‌سیم ثابت (FWA)، دسترسی به اینترنت را با استفاده از فناوری شبکه تلفن همراه بی‌سیم به جای خطوط ثابت فراهم می‌کند.
با این حال، تا به امروز فناوری شبکه تلفن همراه قادر به ارائه سرعت یا سطوح تاخیر قابل مقایسه با پهن‌باند فیبر نبوده است.
نسل جدید FWA با استفاده از فناوری شبکه 5G، باید این موضوع را تغییر دهد.
تحقیقات Market Insights نشان می‌دهد بازار 5G FWA، ممکن است بین سال‌های 2019 تا 2025، به میزان 84 درصد رشد پیدا کند و در نهایت، بیش از 40 میلیارد دلار ارزش داشته باشد.
این گزارش همچنین تخمین می‌زند 5G FWA، هزینه اولیه برقراری اتصال «آخرین مایل» را تا 40 درصد در مقایسه با فیبر، کاهش می‌دهد.
بنابراین پرسش این است: آیا 5G FWA، جایگزین فیبر خواهد شد؟
برای بررسی تاثیر بالقوه 5G FWA، باید به برخی سوالات مهم پاسخ دهیم:
- این فناوری، چه سهمی از کل بازار پهنای باند محصولات بی‌سیم ثابت را اشغال می‌کند؟
- توپولوژی/ جغرافیایی که پوشش داده می‌شود، چیست؟
- فناوری 5G FWA در کدام افق زمانی، به طور کامل مستقر می‌شود؟
- آیا می‌توانیم مطمئن باشیم تاثیر 5G FWA، بر مناطق جغرافیایی و فناوری‌های دسترسی فعلی، برابر نیست؟
علاوه بر این، دسترسی بی‌سیم ثابت 5G، تنها گزینه موجود نخواهد بود، بلکه FTTH با (WiFi6 (802.11ax، رقیب سرسختی برای بی‌سیم ثابت 5G خواهد بود.
این فناوری، حداکثر تا 40 درصد نرخ داده بالاتر را ارائه، عمر باتری را برای دستگاه‌های تک‌مشتری افزایش و کارایی شبکه را ارتقا می‌دهد.
در برنامه‌های متراکم، Wi-Fi 6 می‌تواند تا چهار برابر، عملکرد بی‌سیم بهتری نسبت به (Wi-Fi 5 (802.11ac ارائه دهد.
این موضوع، با توجه به ظهور اینترنت اشیا، رایانش ابری، شهرهای هوشمند و…، یک مزیت بزرگ است.
در این رابطه، Wi-Fi 6 با 2.4 گیگاهرتز، 5 گیگاهرتز و باندهای 1 گیگاهرتز و 6 گیگاهرتز که قرار است معرفی شوند، سازگار خواهد بود.
امروزه کسب‌وکارها و ارائه‌دهندگان مخابراتی بر مشتریان جهانی تمرکز می‌کنند اما در آینده، بازارها به‌مراتب عمودی‌تر خواهند بود و باید رویکرد خود را تغییر دهند.
فناوری‌های 5G و دیجیتال برای خدمات‌رسانی به این بازارها ضروری خواهند بود.
به طور خلاصه، تمرکز بر موارد استفاده که باعث تحول دیجیتال می‌شود، ضروری است.
هسته 5G با تحول دیجیتال، عرضه‌کننده خدمات ارائه خواهد بود.
دسترسی رادیویی 5G، تنها یکی دیگر از اشکال دسترسی پهنای باند است و به خودی‌خود، یک راه‌حل کامل نیست.
دسترسی بی‌سیم 5G، ممکن است مکمل ساخت فیبر باشد اما مستقیما جایگزین آن نخواهد شد.
مزایای اصلی فیبر، همچنان ظرفیت بالاتر و تاخیر کمتر است، بنابراین صنعت فناوری نباید تنها به دنبال یک راه‌حل واحد باشد، بلکه باید روی تصویر بزرگ‌تر تحول دیجیتال متمرکز شود!
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